The U.S. government is not considering any changes to ongoing military exercises it conducts on and around the Korean Peninsula with its allies, officials say, despite Chinese assertions that a so-called "freeze for freeze" agreement involving both sides' limiting military action could prompt North Korea to discontinue its provocative nuclear weapons tests.
The Chinese proposal, known also as a "double freeze" or "double suspension," could be the most promising diplomatic course amid unprecedented tensions in recent months, according to some analysts, though it remains unclear the extent to which China holds any influence over Pyongyang.
U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley dismissed as "insulting" the proposal that Beijing has touted for months and repeated at an emergency Security Council meeting Monday, held in response to another nuclear test that North Korea claims involved an advanced hydrogen bomb.
"When a rogue regime has a nuclear weapon and an [intercontinental ballistic missile] pointed at you, you do not take steps to lower your guard," Haley said at the meeting. "No one would do that. We certainly won't."
A State Department spokesman confirmed Tuesday there is no intent to cancel or otherwise change military exercises, such as the annual "Ulchi Freedom Guardian," which concluded on Aug. 31 and involved 17,500 American service members, including 3,000 who deployed to the region to participate. Other officials have defended the exercises despite North Korean claims that they are provocative and dangerous.
"These are regularly scheduled. It's an annual exercise that we do all the time," State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said in late August. "It comes with many months of planning. But to suggest that our activity with our ally of the Republic of Korea is in any way equivalent to the DPRK's actions is simply false."
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has continued threatening to attack American territory, specifying in August the Pacific island of Guam in addition to the West Coast of the U.S. mainland. Pyongyang now claims it can affix a nuclear warhead atop an intercontinental missile, a capability made more dangerous by U.S. assessments that it can launch them from mobile platforms. It remains unclear whether the regime has the ability to hit specific targets accurately or to protect the warhead from breaking up during flight.
A Defense Department spokesman did not respond immediately to requests for comment about whether the Pentagon had considered any changes to its military presence on the peninsula, even a token gesture the Chinese could use to attempt to calm its historic and bellicose client in the Kim regime.
Given the consequences, however, the White House would likely need to approve any such change.
When asked Tuesday about whether President Donald Trump would consider negotiations with North Korea, spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders said the White House was looking at "aggressive measures, both diplomatically [and] economically."
"As we've said, all options are on the table, and we're going to continue to push for a safer and denuclearized Korean peninsula. And that's the priority here," Sanders said.
Trump has repeatedly said China should be doing more to rein in North Korea, and he tweeted over the weekend, "South Korea is finding, as I have told them, that their talk of appeasement with North Korea will not work, they only understand one thing!" He also posted on Tuesday that he would allow Japan and South Korea to "buy a substantially increased amount of highly sophisticated military equipment from the United States," but he stopped short of repeating suggestions on the campaign trail that he might be open to the two allies pursuing their own nuclear weapons programs.
Analysts also question the security implications of any sort of military shift.
"If there's any evidence that kind of appeasement would work, we haven't seen it yet," says Thomas Karako, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and nuclear weapons expert.
Symbolically, a change to military exercises would undercut the unity the U.S. needs to demonstrate to key regional allies like Japan and South Korea. The exercises also provide the practical benefit of honing the military capabilities of the participating countries, and they allow soldiers to practice working across cultural and language barriers.
"The idea of giving more and more to North Korea – and, by the way, China would like to see it for its own purposes – the idea that would result in a change in their behavior or their intent would be a bit of a stretch," Karako says.
Others believe China knows the U.S. would never alter its military footing on the Korean Peninsula and have merely put forward the proposals to demonstrate that it is the governing power for its part of the world.
"This is indeed a test case to what end China can play a larger regional role," says Jian Chen, a professor of U.S.-China relations at Cornell University. "China should play a larger regional role in guaranteeing safety and security, and North Korea is the single most important source of instability now in northeast Asia."
Beijing is likely focused on any effort that can de-escalate heightened tensions, even temporarily, particularly as its rulers prepare for the secretive 19th National Congress of the Communist Party in October, at which they will elect new leadership and determine policy for the near future.
[OPINION: On North Korea, China Has the Keys]
Among the most concerning issues is China's relationship in general with North Korea, which, despite a trade relationship Pyongyang relies on, Chen assesses is at its lowest point in the history of the two countries' current governments. Kim, for example, has never traveled to China since assuming power in 2011, unlike his predecessors who visited routinely.
"He's scared about traveling to China," Chen says. "So China needs some kind of leverage."
The timing of North Korea's belligerence couldn't be worse for Beijing, which has prioritized in recent weeks its efforts on global economic leadership. The latest missile test was conducted hours before Chinese President Xi Jinping was scheduled to address an economic summit of leaders from Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa, a group of developing industrialized nations known collectively as BRICS. The timing of the test led some to speculate that it was as much a rebuke of Xi as it was of Trump.
A breakdown in relations with Pyongyang could have disastrous consequences, as China tries to balance its desire to prevent all-out war while also maintaining a stable regime in North Korea that can prevent a South Korean takeover of territory at China's border.
"This is more than a pain in the neck," Chen adds. "It's kind of a skin cancer, with the possibility of spreading to other parts of the body."
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